NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 5 to 9.5 off 3+ straight non-covers (first half)
Home team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
53-40 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.7%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 53-40 (n=93), won 57.0% (95% range 46.9% to 66.6%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +8.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 15-8, +24.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 38-32, +3.5%
- 2023-24
- 15-8 (n=23), ROI +24.4%
- 2024-25
- 22-13 (n=35), ROI +19.5%
- 2025-26
- 16-19 (n=35), ROI -12.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.