NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 5 to 9.5 off a 15+ point loss (first half)
Home team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, lost its last game by 15+. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
57-44-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +7.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 57-44-2 (n=101), won 56.4% (95% range 46.7% to 65.7%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +7.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 20-17-1, +2.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 37-27-1, +9.9%
- 2023-24
- 20-17-1 (n=37), ROI +2.6%
- 2024-25
- 20-16-1 (n=36), ROI +5.6%
- 2025-26
- 17-11 (n=28), ROI +15.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.