NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 5 to 9.5 seeking revenge for a 10+ point loss (first half)
Home team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, lost the last meeting this season by 10+. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
57-47-3 since 2023, ROI after the vig +4.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 57-47-3 (n=104), won 54.8% (95% range 45.2% to 64.0%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +4.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 22-16-2, +9.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 35-31-1, +0.8%
- 2023-24
- 22-16-2 (n=38), ROI +9.9%
- 2024-25
- 16-14-1 (n=30), ROI +1.7%
- 2025-26
- 19-17 (n=36), ROI -0.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.