NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home team on a back-to-back vs rested road, 1H
Regular season. Home team on 0 days rest, road team with 1+. Bet the road team 1H ATS. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
232-196-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +3.6%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 232-196-1 (n=428), won 54.2% (95% range 49.5% to 58.9%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +3.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 81-63-1, +7.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 151-133, +1.6%
- 2023-24
- 81-63-1 (n=144), ROI +7.4%
- 2024-25
- 76-72 (n=148), ROI -1.8%
- 2025-26
- 75-61 (n=136), ROI +5.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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