NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home underdog of 10+ on a back-to-back vs a rested team (first half)
Home team, underdog of 10+ at the close, is on a back-to-back, opponent rested. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
39-20 since 2023, ROI after the vig +25.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 39-20 (n=59), won 66.1% (95% range 53.4% to 76.9%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +25.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 14-7, +26.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 25-13, +25.4%
- 2023-24
- 14-7 (n=21), ROI +26.8%
- 2024-25
- 11-5 (n=16), ROI +30.6%
- 2025-26
- 14-8 (n=22), ROI +21.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.