NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game losing streak (first half)
Home team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has lost 4+ straight. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
39-28-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +11.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 39-28-1 (n=67), won 58.2% (95% range 46.3% to 69.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +11.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 13-9, +12.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 26-19-1, +10.3%
- 2023-24
- 13-9 (n=22), ROI +12.8%
- 2024-25
- 13-7-1 (n=20), ROI +24.3%
- 2025-26
- 13-12 (n=25), ROI -1.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.