NBA · spread · Published system
Late-season tanking / motivation
Final ~15 games: eliminated/tanking team vs team in playoff race. Bet: back them on the spread.
146-125-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 146-125-3 (n=271), won 53.9% (95% range 47.9% to 59.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +2.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 86-75-2, +2.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 60-50-1, +4.1%
- 2021-22
- 26-22-1 (n=48), ROI +3.6%
- 2022-23
- 29-21 (n=50), ROI +10.8%
- 2023-24
- 31-32-1 (n=63), ROI -5.9%
- 2024-25
- 29-19-1 (n=48), ROI +15.4%
- 2025-26
- 31-31 (n=62), ROI -4.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.