NBA · spread · Published system
Playoff home favorites off loss and non-cover
Playoffs, home favorite that lost and failed to cover last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
62-49-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 62-49-1 (n=111), won 55.9% (95% range 46.6% to 64.7%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +6.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 36-31, +2.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 26-18-1, +13.0%
- 2021-22
- 12-12 (n=24), ROI -4.2%
- 2022-23
- 17-9 (n=26), ROI +24.8%
- 2023-24
- 7-10 (n=17), ROI -21.2%
- 2024-25
- 15-7-1 (n=22), ROI +30.4%
- 2025-26
- 11-11 (n=22), ROI -4.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.