NBA · spread · Published system
Playoff home team off a home loss
Playoff home team that lost its last game at home. Bet: back them on the spread.
49-32 since 2021, ROI after the vig +15.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 49-32 (n=81), won 60.5% (95% range 49.6% to 70.4%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +15.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 27-18, +14.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 22-14, +16.9%
- 2021-22
- 12-4 (n=16), ROI +43.5%
- 2022-23
- 8-8 (n=16), ROI -4.4%
- 2023-24
- 7-6 (n=13), ROI +2.6%
- 2024-25
- 10-8 (n=18), ROI +6.2%
- 2025-26
- 12-6 (n=18), ROI +27.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.