NBA · spread · Published system
Playoff R1 big favorites
First round, favorite of 8.5+. Bet: back them on the spread.
29-25 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.8%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 29-25 (n=54), won 53.7% (95% range 40.6% to 66.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +2.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-12, -4.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 17-13, +8.5%
- 2021-22
- 2-5 (n=7), ROI -45.4%
- 2022-23
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -4.0%
- 2023-24
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +35.9%
- 2024-25
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +15.3%
- 2025-26
- 11-9 (n=20), ROI +5.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.