NBA · spread · Published system
Race team favored vs an eliminated team
Final 10 regular-season games: team still in the playoff race favored vs an eliminated team. Bet: back them on the spread.
105-90-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 105-90-3 (n=195), won 53.8% (95% range 46.8% to 60.7%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +2.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 59-50-2, +3.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 46-40-1, +2.1%
- 2021-22
- 18-16-1 (n=34), ROI +1.2%
- 2022-23
- 22-12 (n=34), ROI +23.6%
- 2023-24
- 19-22-1 (n=41), ROI -11.3%
- 2024-25
- 22-15-1 (n=37), ROI +13.5%
- 2025-26
- 24-25 (n=49), ROI -6.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.