NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Race team favored vs an eliminated team (first half)
Final 10 regular-season games: team still in the playoff race favored vs an eliminated team. First-half bet. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
71-56-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.6%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 71-56-1 (n=127), won 55.9% (95% range 47.2% to 64.2%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +6.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 23-19, +3.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 48-37-1, +7.9%
- 2023-24
- 23-19 (n=42), ROI +3.9%
- 2024-25
- 19-18-1 (n=37), ROI -1.9%
- 2025-26
- 29-19 (n=48), ROI +15.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.