NBA · spread · Published system
Road favorite of 10+ late season in the race vs an eliminated team
Road team, favorite of 10+ at the close, is still in the playoff race vs an eliminated team, final 20 games. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
60-44-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +10.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 60-44-2 (n=104), won 57.7% (95% range 48.1% to 66.8%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +10.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 32-26-1, +5.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 28-18-1, +16.1%
- 2021-22
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +15.0%
- 2022-23
- 10-7 (n=17), ROI +12.4%
- 2023-24
- 16-15-1 (n=31), ROI -1.4%
- 2024-25
- 14-4-1 (n=18), ROI +48.6%
- 2025-26
- 14-14 (n=28), ROI -4.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.