NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 10+ late season in the race vs an eliminated team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 10+ at the close, is still in the playoff race vs an eliminated team, final 20 games. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
44-33 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.7%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 44-33 (n=77), won 57.1% (95% range 46.0% to 67.6%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +8.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 18-14, +6.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 26-19, +10.3%
- 2023-24
- 18-14 (n=32), ROI +6.5%
- 2024-25
- 10-9 (n=19), ROI +0.5%
- 2025-26
- 16-10 (n=26), ROI +17.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.