NBA · spread · Published system
Road favorite of 10+ off a loss
Road team, favorite of 10+ at the close, lost its last game. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
68-57-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 68-57-2 (n=125), won 54.4% (95% range 45.7% to 62.9%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +3.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 31-26, +4.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 37-31-2, +3.8%
- 2021-22
- 7-7 (n=14), ROI -4.4%
- 2022-23
- 10-8 (n=18), ROI +6.3%
- 2023-24
- 14-11 (n=25), ROI +7.1%
- 2024-25
- 20-11-1 (n=31), ROI +23.1%
- 2025-26
- 17-20-1 (n=37), ROI -12.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.