NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 10+ with more rest (first half)
Road team, favorite of 10+ at the close, has more rest than its opponent. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
54-33 since 2023, ROI after the vig +18.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 54-33 (n=87), won 62.1% (95% range 51.6% to 71.5%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +18.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 19-11, +20.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 35-22, +16.9%
- 2023-24
- 19-11 (n=30), ROI +20.4%
- 2024-25
- 15-10 (n=25), ROI +13.9%
- 2025-26
- 20-12 (n=32), ROI +19.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.