NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 4.5 or less off 3+ straight covers (first half)
Road team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, covered 3+ straight. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
48-29-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +19.0%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 48-29-2 (n=77), won 62.3% (95% range 51.2% to 72.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +19.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 16-13-1, +4.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 32-16-1, +27.6%
- 2023-24
- 16-13-1 (n=29), ROI +4.8%
- 2024-25
- 16-7 (n=23), ROI +33.4%
- 2025-26
- 16-9-1 (n=25), ROI +22.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.