NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 4.5 or less on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
62-48-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +7.4%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 62-48-2 (n=110), won 56.4% (95% range 47.0% to 65.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +7.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 23-13, +21.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 39-35-2, +0.7%
- 2023-24
- 23-13 (n=36), ROI +21.3%
- 2024-25
- 20-14 (n=34), ROI +12.3%
- 2025-26
- 19-21-2 (n=40), ROI -9.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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