NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 4.5 or less on a back-to-back vs a rested team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, is on a back-to-back, opponent rested. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
42-35 since 2023, ROI after the vig +3.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 42-35 (n=77), won 54.5% (95% range 43.5% to 65.2%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +3.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 12-10, +3.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 30-25, +4.1%
- 2023-24
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +3.5%
- 2024-25
- 18-11 (n=29), ROI +18.5%
- 2025-26
- 12-14 (n=26), ROI -12.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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