NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road favorite of 5 to 9.5 in a division game (first half)
Road team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, is in a division game. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
66-47-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +11.3%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 66-47-1 (n=113), won 58.4% (95% range 49.2% to 67.1%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +11.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 20-13, +15.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 46-34-1, +9.6%
- 2023-24
- 20-13 (n=33), ROI +15.3%
- 2024-25
- 29-16 (n=45), ROI +23.0%
- 2025-26
- 17-18-1 (n=35), ROI -7.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.