NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Road favorite of 5 to 9.5 late season in the race vs an eliminated team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, is still in the playoff race vs an eliminated team, final 20 games. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
18-8 since 2023, ROI after the vig +32.2%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig on a small sample (26 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 18-8 (n=26), won 69.2% (95% range 50.0% to 83.5%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +32.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 5-3, +18.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 13-5, +38.1%
- 2023-24
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +18.9%
- 2024-25
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +49.0%
- 2025-26
- 6-3 (n=9), ROI +27.3%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.