NBA · spread · Published system
Road favorite of 5 to 9.5 on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team
Road team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
63-52-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 63-52-1 (n=115), won 54.8% (95% range 45.7% to 63.6%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +4.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 32-27-1, +3.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 31-25, +6.0%
- 2021-22
- 15-10-1 (n=25), ROI +14.9%
- 2022-23
- 11-3 (n=14), ROI +50.3%
- 2023-24
- 6-14 (n=20), ROI -42.3%
- 2024-25
- 20-15 (n=35), ROI +9.4%
- 2025-26
- 11-10 (n=21), ROI +0.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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