NBA · spread · Published system
Road underdog of 10+ on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team
Road team, underdog of 10+ at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
112-91-5 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 112-91-5 (n=203), won 55.2% (95% range 48.3% to 61.9%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +5.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 61-55-3, +0.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 51-36-2, +11.8%
- 2021-22
- 22-19-1 (n=41), ROI +2.4%
- 2022-23
- 23-17-2 (n=40), ROI +10.0%
- 2023-24
- 16-19 (n=35), ROI -12.8%
- 2024-25
- 25-20-1 (n=45), ROI +6.0%
- 2025-26
- 26-16-1 (n=42), ROI +18.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.