NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off 3+ straight covers (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, covered 3+ straight. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
48-30-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +17.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 48-30-1 (n=78), won 61.5% (95% range 50.4% to 71.5%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +17.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 15-6, +35.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 33-24-1, +10.4%
- 2023-24
- 15-6 (n=21), ROI +35.6%
- 2024-25
- 11-12-1 (n=23), ROI -9.3%
- 2025-26
- 22-12 (n=34), ROI +23.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.