NBA · spread · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off 3+ straight non-covers
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
95-69-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +10.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 95-69-4 (n=164), won 57.9% (95% range 50.3% to 65.2%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +10.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 59-43-4, +10.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 36-26, +11.3%
- 2021-22
- 19-14-2 (n=33), ROI +10.0%
- 2022-23
- 20-17-1 (n=37), ROI +3.6%
- 2023-24
- 20-12-1 (n=32), ROI +19.7%
- 2024-25
- 19-16 (n=35), ROI +3.9%
- 2025-26
- 17-10 (n=27), ROI +20.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.