NBA · moneyline · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off 3+ straight non-covers, moneyline
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet it to win outright. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
81-87 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 81-87 (n=168), won 48.2% (95% range 40.8% to 55.7%); break-even 44.6%; ROI after the vig +7.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 53-53, +11.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 28-34, +2.0%
- 2021-22
- 18-17 (n=35), ROI +16.9%
- 2022-23
- 18-20 (n=38), ROI +5.7%
- 2023-24
- 17-16 (n=33), ROI +11.7%
- 2024-25
- 15-20 (n=35), ROI -3.8%
- 2025-26
- 13-14 (n=27), ROI +9.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.