NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off a loss (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, lost its last game. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
212-171-3 since 2023, ROI after the vig +5.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 212-171-3 (n=383), won 55.4% (95% range 50.3% to 60.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +5.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 79-61-2, +7.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 133-110-1, +4.4%
- 2023-24
- 79-61-2 (n=140), ROI +7.5%
- 2024-25
- 73-56-1 (n=129), ROI +7.9%
- 2025-26
- 60-54 (n=114), ROI +0.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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