NBA · spread · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game losing streak
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has lost 4+ straight. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
59-41-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +13.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 59-41-1 (n=100), won 59.0% (95% range 49.2% to 68.1%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +13.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 32-24-1, +9.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 27-17, +17.6%
- 2021-22
- 8-11-1 (n=19), ROI -19.6%
- 2022-23
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.5%
- 2023-24
- 15-6 (n=21), ROI +36.9%
- 2024-25
- 14-7 (n=21), ROI +27.9%
- 2025-26
- 13-10 (n=23), ROI +8.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.