NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game losing streak (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has lost 4+ straight. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
44-19 since 2023, ROI after the vig +33.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 44-19 (n=63), won 69.8% (95% range 57.6% to 79.8%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +33.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 16-5, +45.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 28-14, +27.0%
- 2023-24
- 16-5 (n=21), ROI +45.7%
- 2024-25
- 14-7 (n=21), ROI +26.8%
- 2025-26
- 14-7 (n=21), ROI +27.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.