NBA · spread · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game win streak
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has won 4+ straight. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
61-50 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 61-50 (n=111), won 54.9% (95% range 45.7% to 63.9%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +5.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 35-28, +6.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 26-22, +3.6%
- 2021-22
- 15-10 (n=25), ROI +14.5%
- 2022-23
- 6-12 (n=18), ROI -36.4%
- 2023-24
- 14-6 (n=20), ROI +34.1%
- 2024-25
- 15-11 (n=26), ROI +10.2%
- 2025-26
- 11-11 (n=22), ROI -4.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.