NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less seeking revenge for a 10+ point loss (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, lost the last meeting this season by 10+. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
69-51 since 2023, ROI after the vig +9.7%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 69-51 (n=120), won 57.5% (95% range 48.6% to 66.0%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +9.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 28-18, +15.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 41-33, +5.8%
- 2023-24
- 28-18 (n=46), ROI +15.8%
- 2024-25
- 20-13 (n=33), ROI +15.6%
- 2025-26
- 21-20 (n=41), ROI -2.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.