NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less with more rest (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has more rest than its opponent. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
94-58-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +17.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 94-58-2 (n=152), won 61.8% (95% range 53.9% to 69.2%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +17.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 36-26-1, +10.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 58-32-1, +22.8%
- 2023-24
- 36-26-1 (n=62), ROI +10.8%
- 2024-25
- 31-18-1 (n=49), ROI +20.7%
- 2025-26
- 27-14 (n=41), ROI +25.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.