NBA · moneyline · Published system
Road underdog of 5 to 9.5 off 3+ straight non-covers, moneyline
Road team, underdog of 5 to 9.5, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet it to win outright. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
66-118 since 2021, ROI after the vig +21.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 66-118 (n=184), won 35.9% (95% range 29.3% to 43.0%); break-even 30.2%; ROI after the vig +21.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 46-74, +30.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 20-44, +4.4%
- 2021-22
- 19-26 (n=45), ROI +48.7%
- 2022-23
- 14-31 (n=45), ROI +0.5%
- 2023-24
- 13-17 (n=30), ROI +46.4%
- 2024-25
- 12-25 (n=37), ROI +7.5%
- 2025-26
- 8-19 (n=27), ROI +0.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.