NBA · moneyline · Published system
Road underdog of 5 to 9.5 off a 15+ point loss, moneyline
Road team, underdog of 5 to 9.5, lost its last game by 15+. Bet it to win outright. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
106-218 since 2021, ROI after the vig +8.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 106-218 (n=324), won 32.7% (95% range 27.8% to 38.0%); break-even 29.6%; ROI after the vig +8.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 69-141, +10.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 37-77, +5.3%
- 2021-22
- 29-42 (n=71), ROI +42.4%
- 2022-23
- 20-51 (n=71), ROI -8.2%
- 2023-24
- 20-48 (n=68), ROI -3.4%
- 2024-25
- 23-43 (n=66), ROI +13.1%
- 2025-26
- 14-34 (n=48), ROI -5.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.