NBA · spread · Published system
Road underdog of 5 to 9.5 on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team
Road team, underdog of 5 to 9.5 at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
155-137-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.4%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 155-137-3 (n=292), won 53.1% (95% range 47.4% to 58.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +1.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 103-93-3, +0.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 52-44, +3.5%
- 2021-22
- 25-31-1 (n=56), ROI -14.9%
- 2022-23
- 42-37-2 (n=79), ROI +1.6%
- 2023-24
- 36-25 (n=61), ROI +12.6%
- 2024-25
- 23-21 (n=44), ROI -0.1%
- 2025-26
- 29-23 (n=52), ROI +6.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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