NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Road underdog of 5 to 9.5 on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team (first half)
Road team, underdog of 5 to 9.5 at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
88-64-4 since 2023, ROI after the vig +10.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 88-64-4 (n=152), won 57.9% (95% range 50.0% to 65.5%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +10.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 38-20-3, +24.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 50-44-1, +1.4%
- 2023-24
- 38-20-3 (n=58), ROI +24.4%
- 2024-25
- 24-19 (n=43), ROI +6.2%
- 2025-26
- 26-25-1 (n=51), ROI -2.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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