NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Slow starter (-3 1H), opponent on a back-to-back: fade 1H spread
Slow starter (-3 1H), opponent on a back-to-back: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "opponent.schedule.b2b": true} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
149-125-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +3.6%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 149-125-2 (n=274), won 54.4% (95% range 48.5% to 60.2%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +3.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 50-42-2, +3.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 99-83, +3.7%
- 2023-24
- 50-42-2 (n=92), ROI +3.3%
- 2024-25
- 47-38 (n=85), ROI +5.6%
- 2025-26
- 52-45 (n=97), ROI +2.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.