NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Slow starter (-3 1H) with a winning record: fade 1H spread
Slow starter (-3 1H) with a winning record: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "form.seasonWinPct": {"gt": 0.5}} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
36-32-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +0.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 36-32-1 (n=68), won 52.9% (95% range 41.2% to 64.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +0.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 9-8, +1.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 27-24-1, +0.8%
- 2023-24
- 9-8 (n=17), ROI +1.0%
- 2024-25
- 24-18-1 (n=42), ROI +9.0%
- 2025-26
- 3-6 (n=9), ROI -37.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.