NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Underdog at 4%+ EV, +100 to +200: moneyline
NBA: Underdog at 4%+ EV, +100 to +200: moneyline. Machine rule: {"line.isFavorite": false, "ev.ml.pct": {"min": 4}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": 100, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
39-45 since 2021, ROI after the vig +15.4%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 39-45 (n=84), won 46.4% (95% range 36.1% to 57.0%); break-even 40.6%; ROI after the vig +15.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 29-36, +9.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 10-9, +35.0%
- 2021-22
- 23-25 (n=48), ROI +17.3%
- 2022-23
- 4-6 (n=10), ROI -1.5%
- 2023-24
- 2-5 (n=7), ROI -27.1%
- 2024-25
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +40.1%
- 2025-26
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI +30.5%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.