NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Winning road dog vs a losing team (first half)
Road underdog with a winning record facing a losing team (10+ games). First-half bet. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
47-37-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.6%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 47-37-2 (n=84), won 56.0% (95% range 45.3% to 66.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +6.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 20-18-1, +0.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 27-19-1, +11.8%
- 2023-24
- 20-18-1 (n=38), ROI +0.3%
- 2024-25
- 14-15-1 (n=29), ROI -7.8%
- 2025-26
- 13-4 (n=17), ROI +45.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.