NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
1H bounce-back after 7 or fewer at home
Team's previous game was at home and it scored 7 or fewer points. Bet it 1H ATS in its next game. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
21-16-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig on a small sample (37 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 21-16-2 (n=37), won 56.8% (95% range 40.9% to 71.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +8.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 6-4, +15.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 15-12-2, +5.2%
- 2023-24
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +15.8%
- 2024-25
- 10-7-1 (n=17), ROI +10.6%
- 2025-26
- 5-5-1 (n=10), ROI -4.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.