NFL · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Any team at 1%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline
NFL: Any team at 1%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline. Machine rule: {"ev.ml.pct": {"min": 1}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": -200, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
34-31 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.5%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 34-31 (n=65), won 52.3% (95% range 40.4% to 64.0%); break-even 48.2%; ROI after the vig +11.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 22-21, +7.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 12-10, +20.0%
- 2021-22
- 15-16 (n=31), ROI +1.9%
- 2022-23
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +22.2%
- 2023-24
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI +17.8%
- 2024-25
- 0-4 (n=4), ROI -100.0%
- 2025-26
- 9-2 (n=11), ROI +91.0%
- 2026-27
- 3-4 (n=7), ROI -23.2%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.