NFL · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Underdog at 2%+ EV, +100 to +200: moneyline
NFL: Underdog at 2%+ EV, +100 to +200: moneyline. Machine rule: {"line.isFavorite": false, "ev.ml.pct": {"min": 2}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": 100, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
17-7 since 2021, ROI after the vig +70.5%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (24 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 17-7 (n=24), won 70.8% (95% range 50.8% to 85.1%); break-even 41.2%; ROI after the vig +70.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 11-5, +63.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 6-2, +83.5%
- 2021-22
- 9-3 (n=12), ROI +81.3%
- 2022-23
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI +6.5%
- 2023-24
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI +17.5%
- 2024-25
- 0-1 (n=1), ROI -100.0%
- 2025-26
- 6-0 (n=6), ROI +144.7%
- 2026-27
- 0-1 (n=1), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.