NFL · spread · Published system
Bad-team battles: take the dog
Both teams .350 or worse, total 41 or less: underdog ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
18-13 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (31 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 18-13 (n=31), won 58.1% (95% range 40.8% to 73.6%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +11.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-7, +7.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-6, +15.0%
- 2021-22
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI -23.8%
- 2022-23
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +20.6%
- 2023-24
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +25.4%
- 2024-25
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +36.9%
- 2025-26
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -4.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.