NFL · spread · Published system
Big home dog after blowout loss
Home underdog of +7 or more whose previous game was a loss by 20+. Bet: back them on the spread.
18-11 since 2021, ROI after the vig +18.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (29 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 18-11 (n=29), won 62.1% (95% range 44.0% to 77.3%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +18.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 11-6, +23.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 7-5, +11.3%
- 2021-22
- 8-4 (n=12), ROI +27.0%
- 2022-23
- 1-0 (n=1), ROI +93.4%
- 2023-24
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -5.5%
- 2024-25
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +25.2%
- 2025-26
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +6.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.