NFL · spread · Published system
Division dogs that scored 10 or less in a loss
Scored 10 or fewer in last game (a loss); division underdog: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
53-31-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +20.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 53-31-4 (n=84), won 63.1% (95% range 52.4% to 72.6%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +20.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 29-20-2, +13.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 24-11-2, +31.2%
- 2021-22
- 12-6 (n=18), ROI +27.0%
- 2022-23
- 8-5 (n=13), ROI +17.0%
- 2023-24
- 9-9-2 (n=18), ROI -4.1%
- 2024-25
- 11-8-2 (n=19), ROI +11.0%
- 2025-26
- 13-3 (n=16), ROI +55.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.