NFL · spread · Published system
Division home favorite of 7+
NFL regular season, division game, home favorite of 7+: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
55-47-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 55-47-2 (n=102), won 53.9% (95% range 44.3% to 63.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +2.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 33-27-1, +4.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 22-20-1, +0.0%
- 2021-22
- 18-6-1 (n=24), ROI +42.5%
- 2022-23
- 5-12 (n=17), ROI -43.3%
- 2023-24
- 10-9 (n=19), ROI +0.2%
- 2024-25
- 9-10 (n=19), ROI -9.2%
- 2025-26
- 13-10-1 (n=23), ROI +7.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.