NFL · spread · Published system
Division home favorite of 7+ off a loss
NFL regular season, division game, home favorite of 7+ off a loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
23-11 since 2021, ROI after the vig +29.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (34 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 23-11 (n=34), won 67.7% (95% range 50.8% to 80.9%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +29.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 15-8, +24.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 8-3, +39.1%
- 2021-22
- 6-2 (n=8), ROI +43.1%
- 2022-23
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI -22.9%
- 2023-24
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +33.1%
- 2024-25
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -4.0%
- 2025-26
- 5-0 (n=5), ROI +90.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.