NFL · spread · Published system
Division road dog of 3 or less off a loss
NFL regular season, division game, road dog of 3 or less off a loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
26-12 since 2021, ROI after the vig +31.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (38 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 26-12 (n=38), won 68.4% (95% range 52.5% to 80.9%); break-even 52.0%; ROI after the vig +31.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 17-6, +42.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-6, +15.7%
- 2021-22
- 6-2 (n=8), ROI +43.7%
- 2022-23
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +37.7%
- 2023-24
- 6-2 (n=8), ROI +44.9%
- 2024-25
- 5-1 (n=6), ROI +61.5%
- 2025-26
- 4-5 (n=9), ROI -14.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.