NFL · spread · Published system
Dog of 4+ after losing by 28+
Spread +4 or more; previous game lost by 28+; team game number >= 2. Bet: back them on the spread.
24-20 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (44 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 24-20 (n=44), won 54.5% (95% range 40.1% to 68.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +4.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 13-10, +7.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 11-10, +0.2%
- 2021-22
- 8-6 (n=14), ROI +8.9%
- 2022-23
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -3.8%
- 2023-24
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +13.6%
- 2024-25
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +4.4%
- 2025-26
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -4.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.